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Using income per natural

Will Wilkinson asks us to "absorb this extremely important advance in economic methodology and basic intellectual rigor":

migration is one of the most important sources of poverty reduction for a large portion of the developing world. If economic development is defined as rising human well being, then a residence-neutral measure of well-being emphasizes that crossing international borders is not an alternative to economic development, it is economic development.

The paper measures the income levels of Americans rather than the income levels of people in America. I've not got my head around it yet (either it's claims or implications) but Will knows his stuff. Jim - any thoughts?

The Current Economic Problems

I've not really commented on the current developments in the sub prime crisis, and there's a lot of interesting articles out there. However I do want to correct a fear I have about the mis-characterisation of what Austrian Economics has to say about these events, and use as evidence comments I've made before things started to turn bleak.

My motivation stems from this piece in the Guardian by Larry Elliot, their economics editor. He says:

The libertarian right comes to a similar conclusion but for a different reason. Using the analysis developed by the Austrian school of economists - Ludvig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek - it argues that markets will cure themselves, with state intervention not only in vain but ultimately damaging. The analogy is of a forest fire, which if allowed to burn itself out allows healthy new growth to emerge.

Imagine if an alcoholic is admitted to hospital and the doctors have a conversation:

Dr A (representing the consensus of doctors in this area): He's been drinking heavily for the last few years, he's going to be really upset if we don't let him drink. Best thing is to get a few cans of Special Brew

Dr B (an obscure maverick people often mention but never take the time to understand): Erm, alcoholism is bad. He needs to stop drinking and those who've kept giving him a drink should be struck off

It would be pretty ridiculous to paint Dr B as a callous bastard for wanting to create hardship for the patient. He's the only one who seems to have actually diagnosed the underlying problem, and come up with a solution to cure it (rather than just prolong things and hope for the best). As a commentator to Elliot says:

Larry, the Austrians would let the banks burn in a virtual forest fire, and the directors would go into the fire and not escape with the loot. But, the Austrians measures would never have let the situation reach this stage. Without Central Bank distortion of the money supply and non-market setting of the interest rates, causing malinvestment from these bad economic signals, and without the credit created by overt fractional reserve banking and derivatives(another form of fractional reserves), there would never have been enough credit to ignite this unsustainable boom and now the proportionate bust. Prevention is the best cure, but nothing can remedy where we are now.

I think it's intellectually misleading to say that the Austrian's contribution is to simply blurt out "creative destruction". There is strong and robust evidence to show that Austrian's diagnosed this problem in the 1920s (and I''ve alluded to it on many occasions) and nothings changed. Governments still monetise their debt to create asset bubbles, and monetary policy isn't how government controls the economy, it's how (good) economists control government - i.e. dynamic inconsistency, Lucas critique etc.

The problem is that when the FRC accept responsibility for the current credit crunch, us consumers let them off the hook by retaining our support for the underlying regulatory system. In other words they say "ok we messed up, but we'll do better next time" and we respond "ok, have some more powers". We should be sacking these guys, not rewarding them!

My concern is that we're not learning the real reasons for what's happened, and are opting for the simplistic "sweep it under the rug" solution of opting for greater regulatory zeal. This is problematic for at least two reasons:

  1. The people in the finance industry who invent complex financial instruments are probably more knowledgeable than regulators, and this poses a real difficulty for a "if we don't understand it, regulate it" mentality. High finance is complex, and will inevitably become more so
  2. There will always be off balance sheet activity, and evasion. Since we cannot create a system of full transparency we have to accept that firms will engage in activity that is difficult to monitor. Indeed that's often the source of their competitive advantage! So the greater the regulatory burden on balance sheet activities, the greater the incentives to push normal, value-creating enterprise into off balance sheet activities.

As John Kay recently said:

The state cannot ensure the stability of the financial system and a serious attempt to do so would involve intervention on an unacceptable scale.

At the moment investors expect and demand for activity to be occurring off balance sheet because of the scale of ordinary regulation. Attempts to reach deeper and deeper into the complexities of the system will simply incentivise more complexity and this is untenable. Ideally the regulatory system would scale back, and reduce the burden on those institutions that wish to operate with transparency. That would give us all a reasonable choice as to how we wish to manage our investments, and the risks that they entail.

Career Advice

If you have the benefit of youth, entrepreneurial vision, and a commitment to ideas I strongly suggest the following:

British CEOs for British companies?

This weeks Economist:

The jobs of running Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems—Britain's biggest aerospace and defence firms—are reserved for British citizens, an anomaly that both firms are lobbying hard to end.

Letting the firms choose their own chiefs would be good not just for them and their shareholders but for taxpayers too, many argue. Defence firms are notorious for extracting handouts from governments in the name of national interest. The more they look like any other firm operating in a competitive market, the easier it will be to turn a deaf ear to special pleading.

I've previously asked:

Might transition be more effective if countries appointed foreign experts to ministerial positions, rather than pay them to consult?

The efficiency costs of nationalism really do run deep.

"Grand Slam Sunday" - the aftermath

Any self-respecting football fan groans at Sky's attempts to artificially create a league-within-a-league, and yesterday's coverage was hard to stomach. Liverpool were out of the title race a long time ago, and have a slim 2 point cushion for the fourth Champions League place. And yet we're led to believe that Sunday was all about the title.
It's hard to criticise Sky too much since they are the single-seller of extended Everton highlights, and
I therefore willingly subscribe to their services. It's easier to criticise the BBC, since they offer scant coverage of Everton, yet still charge me for their services (and threaten to jail me if I don't pay). But I'm used to Sky and the BBC providing a mouthpiece for their Liverpool supporting "professional analysts", and generally getting carried away by the whole "Premiership" branding. I've just been perusing today's papers though, and hadn't realised how rife, and widespread, that sentiment is.

Consider the actual events from yesterday. Liverpool took a battering at Manchester United, losing 3-0. After they were already 1-0 down (and were fortunate Steve Bennett didn't give a penalty and send off Carragher after he fouled Rooney when clean through), Maschereno received a second yellow card for dissent. According to the laws of the game:

A player who is guilty of dissent by protesting (verbally or non-verbally) against a referee’s decision must be cautioned. 

As far as i'm aware, no-one is genuinely under the impression that Bennett made a wrong decision. This wasn't a one man vendetta that over-applied the laws of the game to the understandable bemusement of the player in question - that happened to Everton last season, and I don't remember the press making a big deal about it. Yet this morning the BBC, SKY, and the smattering of newspapers I've flicked through, lead with it.

The real stories in the Premier League at the moment are: (i) relegation battle; (ii) title battle (between Man United, Arsenal and Chelsea); (iii) the race for fourth (between Everton and Liverpool), and it's by artificially creating "Grand Slam Sunday" and pretending that Liverpool are involved in (ii) rather than (iii), that we gloss over one of the most fascinating, intruiging battles in recent times. Shed in that light, this mornings press might have put more attention on an actual refereering mistake which saw Yakubu's second against West Ham wrongly disallowed. And that might have jogged a few memories to Andy Johnson's winner against Blackburn - again, wrongly disallowed. It might even prompt someone to wonder why Everton haven't been awarded a penalty in the Premier League all season.

The mainstream media are systematically treating the so-called "Big Four" as being worthy of more time and attention than other teams in the Premier League, and this has the potential to actually influence what happens on the pitch. Even Rafa Benitez is clued up enough to realise that Bennett made the correct decision, it's pretty obvious that his post match comments have one eye firmly on the Derby (and attempting to influence the referee's handling). What annoys me is that the media play along, supporting the view that our Champion's League representatives deserve special treatment. Do I exaggerate? today a Daily Mirror columnist (I can't find it online) made the argument that Steve Bennett shouldn't have ruined such an important match by sending off a player so early. At half time Richard Keys said that the match was ruined for the neutral. In other words, the referee should have shown leniency purely because it was "Grand Slam Sunday".

For those paying attention, a weekend of proper refereeing would see Everton and Liverpool joint fourth going into the Derby. As it stands, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see yet another Derby decided by awful refereeing, swept under the carpet and stored in the great video vault labeled "non Super Sunday". Bitter? Perhaps. But at least I'm not deluded.

Globalisation and Football

Dani Rodrik has an article at Project Syndicate called Globalisation and the Beautiful Game. I confess to struggling to understand Rodrik's precise position on international trade, feeling that he acts as an exemplary critic but a somewhat vague adviser. I don't think he gives his intellectual opponents an honest reading, and revels in being contrary. I also confess to being unsure of how the economic effects of globalisation can be seen through the lens of professional football, and whether it simply gives rise to armchair punditry. So I read his article with interest.

My main criticism is that Rodrik seems to suffer from his own complaint:

instead of sticking to what they are good at--analyzing trade-offs--economists typically engage in amateur normative political theorizing about what is good for society.

There is a robust, enduring and (relatively) straightforward theoretical framework that demonstrates the positive-sum gains of comparative advantage, and thus an economic rationale for unilateral international trade. I am routinely frustrated by the fragmentary, anecdotal, conspiracy-led,  rhetoric-laced specific cases that mask as a critique. Thus the anti-globalisation crowd seem wedded to complex theory to support their stories, even though the more complicated the economic theory, the lower our confidence in it should be. Rodrik is a prime example of an economist who over-complicates theory (formalism being a convenient way to do this), but in this article he also seems to fall victim to casual empiricism. After a lengthy list of the benefits of greater globalisation (better quality football, higher wages to skilled footballers), he attempts to undermine these unambiguous advances with the costs:

  • Many fear that the quality of national teams is harmed by the availability of foreign players
  • Many blame the country’s [England's] failure to qualify for this summer’s European championship on the preponderance of foreign players in English club teams
  • There is also a broader backlash under way. Sepp Blatter, the president of FIFA, soccer’s global governing body, has been pushing a plan to limit to five the number of foreign players that club teams would be allowed to have on the field

Is that really the best we can do? Are there no greater costs that this ramshackle list of blind assertions and scare-mongering? Where's the evidence to say that national teams are harmed by foreign players? Who are blaming these foreigners for England's ineptitude? The irony is that England were relatively successful under Eriksson (a Swede). We were woeful under his predecessor (Keegan, an Englishman) and his successor (McClaren, an Englishman). And since when did anyone believe that sharing an opinion with Sepp Blatter was a good thing?!

Rodrik takes as given that the quality of the Yaoundé domestic league has fallen as a result of globalisation, and I'd like to see evidence. Since jobs and skills aren't fixed, for every player that leaves their domestic league to follow the money to England, Spain or Italy, the incentive to become a professional footballer, and for domestic clubs to improve their scouting and coaching improves dramatically. This might rest on an assumption of a sufficient rule of law that contracts are written and enforced, but even if this doesn't exist, it increases the benefit from legal reform.

Ultimately the only 'losers' from globalisation are, as Rodrik says, those who value their national team. If all players benefit through globalisation, and all club supporters, then to find losers you must implicitly accept the validity of their preferences. The logic of economics supersedes arbitrary political boundaries - the fact that nationalists lose out through economic liberalism is obvious. Rather than take preferences as given, political economist should explicitly deal with normative judgments; *if* your aim is X then policy A is the most appropriate. *If* you desire Y, then go for policy B. There's nothing more amateur and normative than attempting to provide unambiguous, pseudo-positive answers. The debate should be a normative clash between nationalists and European liberals, and economists should be honest enough to explain how the logic of globalisation supports the latter, not the former.

And finally, notice that by it's nature football is a zero-sum game. By definition any change to the sport will leave some sides better off and some worse off. I was hoping Rodrik would shed light on both his own insights, and also the issue at hand. Sadly, my conclusion is that it's a false analogy, with little implication. Maybe you can do better.

Consumer sovereignty

"The consumer is not at the mercy of the shopkeeper. He is free to patronize another shop if he likes. Nobody must kiss other people's hands or fear their disfavor"
Mises 1949, p. 286

"There is only one boss. The customer. And he can fire everybody in the comopany from the chairman on down, simply by spending his money somewhere else"
Sam Walton, founder of Wal-Mart

Norilsk Nickel

In my lecture on Transition Economics I talk briefly about Norilsk Nickel, a Russian mining company that was at the center of the loans-for-shares scandal. One of the chief claims I make in that lecture is that many of the biggest scandals were one of the following:

  • Overstated
  • Contrary to economic advice on the transition process

In the case of privatisation, I ask the question "What actually happened to the companies at the centre of the loans for shares scandal?" Without claiming to have a definitive (or even authoritative) answer, I do point out that in the case of Norilsk Nickel:

  • Norilsk Nickel was a state owned mining company that was privatised in 1997
  • Thoss involved in buying out the company became infamous oligarchs, such as Vladimir Potanin
  • Within a year it had paid all salary debt, restructure outstanding debts (several billions dollars worth) and began a crisis-management process
  • There had been no reinvestment for over 20 years
  • Potanin invested $1bn back into the plant in the early 2000’s

So I read with interest this week's Economist confirming this narrative:

The privatisation was indefensible from almost any point of view—but it worked. Today Norilsk Nickel is more transparent, efficient and profitable than it has ever been. It has a proper board of directors, professional managers and is worth nearly $60 billion.

From a Coaseian perspective (focusing on efficiency outcomes rather than distribution effects) the loans-for-shares "scandal" was not an unambiguous failure of the transition process. But to what extent was it part of an economic transition process?

According to Brian Whitmore:

The loans-for-shares auctions took place in the politically charged run-up to the 1996 presidential elections when a deeply unpopular Yeltsin was badly trailing Communist challenger Gennadii Zyuganov. Organized by Berezovskii, the oligarchs contributed generously to Yeltsin's campaign and used their media empires to guarantee the president positive coverage - and frighten the public with the specter of a return to totalitarianism.

My claim is that Norilsk Nickel encapsulates the view that the greatest controversies in the transition process were either (i) overstated; or (ii) contrary to economic advice. In this case, it probably demonstrates both.

Finnish Education

Wall Street Journal:

Yet by one international measure, Finnish teenagers are among the smartest in the world.

Sean Gabb on non-doms

A free society is not Tesco minus the State. It is a place of small craftsmen and farmers and traders, of artists and of unlicensed doctors and lawyers, and of others needed if individuals and free associations of individuals are to live well. We cannot say much more than this about the arrangements of a free society. But we can be sure it would have no place for big business as it now is found.

More here.

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