As part of one of my courses I lead a workshop on "scenario building" - an established management technique that has immense parallels with Austrian economics. Here's an interesting post by Bryan Caplan describing Tetlock's use of scenarios with politicians. The problem is that scenarios are not a method for assigning probabilities - they're a tool for imagining and preparing for radically (i.e. "Knightian") uncertain events. I can't tell if the problem lies in Tetlock's study or Caplan's interpratation, but is a classic example of ships passing in the night.