The required counterfactuals

I've mentioned before that "we're still waiting for a decent counterfactual history", and that "I can't help feeling that there's a lack of detailed, empirically-based counterfactual analysis. Has anybody provided a coherent and rigorous account of what might have happened without large-scale intervention?" Rest assured that this isn't it. However I will be speaking at the Oxford Libertarian Society on Tuesday evening, and in lieu of no-one else stepping up to the plate, will offer 3 alternative histories:

1. The catastrophe
2. The radical response
3. The opportunistic act

Depending on how well received they are, I will flush them out next week.

Comments

[Leigh Caldwell]

Thanks for kindly linking to my article. I am more than happy to accept your suggestion that my little parable is not a counterfactual history of anything outside of the world of camel traders...or indeed inside it.

I am genuinely interested in your suggestions as to how things would have gone without (much) intervention, so please do post the details when you're ready.