The Filter^

Please Help me out with some Maths

From the BBC:

Bulgarian lottery repeat probed

The Bulgarian authorities have ordered an investigation after the same six numbers were drawn in two consecutive rounds of the national lottery.

A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million. But he said coincidences did happen.

Not sure where the said mathematician got 4m-to-1 from. I did a bit of digging (googling, mainly), and found out that the Bulgarian lottery plays 42 numbers, and draws six.

Under the above conditions, the chance of a particular set of six numbers appearing is:

1/(42*41*40*39*38*37)/(6*5*4*3*2*1) = 1/5.2m

For two identical sets of numbers to come up twice, the chance of that happening is simply the chance of a particular set of numbers coming up.

I therefore argue that the chance of two identical sets of numbers coming up twice in a row is 1 in 5.2 million. Am I right or am I missing something here?

Stuart Mangan (1983-2009)

I was deeply saddened to hear that Stuart Mangan has passed away, aged 25. Stuart studied Law in Cork before doing a Masters in European Business with us. Although I am the London campus director of this program, Stuart studied in our other campuses and therefore I did not teach him personally.
He had a great passion for Rugby, and it was whilst playing a match for Hammersmith & Fulham on Saturday April 5th 2008 that he sustained one of the most serious sports injuries ever incurred on a field of play - a severe spinal injury that left him completely paralysed from the neck down. Due to immediate and excellent medical attention Stuart suffered no brain damage, and embarked on an inspirational battle to maintain a life with purpose. The Stuart Mangan Fund was established to provide the money necessary to deliver his 24 hour a day care, and it was in this capacity that I met his family and Stuart began to play a role at our London campus. Over the last few months he had met several of our students, as we tried to figure out how best we could utilise his many talents. He was becoming an ever more ingrained member of our school community. Alas Stuart passed away on August 7th following one of many infections that he'd had to fight since his injury. Please take the time to read up about a person of incredible bravery (or see this video). My personal thoughts and prayers are with his family during this terrible time - an incredibly loving family who've coped so resiliently with such a deep and sustained struggle - and as a school we will think long and hard about the best way to deliver a permanent legay to Stuart. Rest in peace.

Ian Johnston is a moron

Evan Davis understands the concept of risk better than any other journalist I'm aware of. This morning he ran rings around the Ian Johnston, President of the Police Superintendents' Association on the Today show... listen here (3m50s).

Merry Christmas

Original here, via here.

Help Quinn

Is a double dose of adrenaline and bigotry a popular way for people to begin their day?

The great thing about blogging is the possibility of solving challenges like the one set by Quinn.

That Chris Rock Moment

Gordon Brown:

we have issued instructions that we should support a ban on all cluster bombs, including those currently in service by the UK.

Anton Vowl:

You're not *supposed* to kill, maim and destroy innocent citizens. You're not *supposed* to create ordnance that is attractive to children to pick up. Don't you fucking dare try and take credit for not doing that any more

Why Politics?

I know it's easy for a non-partisan pundit to point score, but now that we've got television again I watched a couple of interviews with Gordon Brown this morning (firstly with Andrew Marr, then with Adam Boulton). I also saw interviews with Alan Duncan and Chris Hughn. What i'd really like is to meet someone who (a) isn't a libertarian; and (b) intelligent enough to realise that Labour, the Tories, and Lib Dems are comprised of egits willing to lie in order to appear to be what they deem as being popular. I'm frustrated because The Filter^ is frequented by people who fit into both categories, so please help me out...

I won't pretend that I have a quick-fix solution to rising food prices, but I know that the Competition Commission's investigation into the UK grocery market has nothing to do with it. The fact that Gordon Brown used it as an example of how he's solving the "silent tsunami" is ludicrous. Following the local election results the PM said that he'd "listen and lead". A journalist asked if he'd have a cabinet reshuffle. Brown repeated "i'll listen and lead". If only the journo had enough nous to say "will you have cabinet reshuffle?" to which Brown would answer "I'll listen and lead"...

I'll pause. And alliterate.

I've been challenged recently about my claim that Central Bank Independence is a highly politicised matter, and yet Brown defended his record on the economy by saying that "we've cut interest rates and injected liquidity". Who is "we"??

In the US John McCain's economic advisers are reassuring supporters that despite his public rhetoric he's in favour of lower taxes. The Tories here are similar, "we'll say what needs to be said to get elected, but rest assured when in office we're on your side". Even if you trust politicians who are willing to lie to get office, how can you support the democratic system that requires them to do so?

It'd be lovely if we could all agree to disagree, but the BBC won't let me. Even though I try my utmost never to watch their channels, if I wish to utilise the services of their competitors I am forced by law to pay for the BBC. Well at some point the level of service gets so frustrating, so bad that I'm willing to fork out for the BBC and their rivals. It's like buying a Dell laptop just for the right to then also pay for a MacBook.

Today I'm annoyed by all intelligent non-libertarians, because it's due to my deep and genuine desire to believe that government provision of fundamental services is right that has meant that I continue to subscribe to them. But any person unfortunate enough to rely upon those services knows that central planning is riddled with information and incentive calamities. I'm ashamed that I've been so willing to settle for the best that socialism can provide, and will in future work hard to ensue that I can buy MacBooks. I know full well that those who can't afford MacBooks will be left with inhumane service, but I no longer see the point of sitting at 3am in the waiting room of a crumbling building alongside them. Rest assured, your waiting lines will be quicker because I'll be elsewhere. Rest assured, i'll be arguing for economic freedom for all.

Income inequality is a contentious issue, but as someone who's relied on public services I am grateful that many people are wealthy enough to afford to opt out. It's precisely because of those who remain in the clutches of socialism that motivates me to make the case of economic freedom, because when I do opt out I want as many pragmatic people as possible to join me. Socialism should be for ideologues, not the poor,.

a Question for 'Fair Deal Phil'

According to Fair Deal Phil,

One of the truly offensive Spectator articles claimed black people have smaller brains and are less intelligent. It claimed:

Orientals ... have larger brains and higher IQ scores. Blacks are at the other pole.

This is a classic example of partisan slander. Phil has objected to a falsifiable claim without providing evidence. One of two things has happened:

• Phil is aware of the evidence that proves this Spectator article wrong, but is too lazy to provide it
• Phil is not aware of any evidence on this issue, but doesn't view this as a scientific debate

Either way, it presents all that is wrong with political debate. I left a comment, but don't hold up much hope for a rational response...

Who Cares About Heathrow's T5?

I don't, but the media seem to. Why? The coverage is similar to the passport backlog, but notice one key difference - it's possible to travel by plane without suffering from the T5 calamity. I was supposed to be traveling to Vegas on Friday, but far from panicking about whether I'll get there (and if my Rimowa Topas will join me) if I was still going I'd be relaxed. Why? Because I bought a ticket with Virgin. So why do we care about T5? Is it purely because it's the previously nationalised airline, who still retain their "Britishness" in their name? Is it because of the state-fueled racket run by BAA that's turned our airports into disgusting shopping centers? Seriously, should I - as an Englishman - be feeling embarrassed?

Holden on Potts: Wrong, Wrong, Wrong!

A slice of ITV cultural debate caught my attention on Saturday night - a profile of the talent-contest-winning singer Paul Potts, in which music critic Rupert Christiansen was invited to give his opinion on Potts' vocal qualities, only to be shot down by that well-known music critic, Amanda Holden.

Holden's point was that the opera world is too pretentious to embrace and accept Potts' talents. Yes, the opera world is often depressingly snobbish and un-embracing, but the problem here is that Potts genuinely has no talent. It's not about snobbishness, it's about a very poor voice and a seeming inability to exercise informed critical judgement on behalf of so many in the entertainment business - all these are rife in the 'crossover' recording market. 

I respect Amanda Holden as an actress and as an entertainer. None of her performances on screen have provided me with any reason to believe she is anything other than a talented performer. I'm no TV/theatre critic, so I wouldn't trust that judgement to hold forth on it in front of the nation, but I doubt she's got where she is without talent, understanding of her art form, and commitment.

I don't often agree with Rupert Christiansen's operatic critiques, but on Paul Potts he hit the nail on the head. The voice is ugly and has no sense of colour or dramatic direction, whilst Potts' performances are almost entirely lacking in musicality. Singing opera is a tough business, even tougher than stage and screen acting Amanda. Wonder into the Leeds Grand and ask any Opera North chorus member to sing Nessun Dorma and you'll get a far superior account to that of Potts. These people sing and act their behinds off for three hours a night, after over ten years of training, and earn a modest salary for it. They combine quality voices with dramatic principles of communication; their business is singing opera on stage, in costume, with no amplification and communicating it to whoever is sitting in the audience with no less than 100% commitment. I wouldn't mind inviting Potts to try this for a week or two. He wouldn't pass the chorus audition of course, but I fear that would be the least of his trials. 

Holden claims that Potts is educating the people about opera. I wish that were true. He's actually lining the pockets of a record label. If you want to educate people about opera, pick a young, enthusiastic, non-upper-class trainee opera singer from any UK music college. They'll teach you about drama, music, communication, vocal technique and the art of performance. I wouldn't mind betting they'd be unpretentious and likeable in the process - which from what I hear, are two qualities that Potts can't boast either.